Gary McAdams

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Residential and Commercial Real Estate Sales, Rentals, and Full Service Property Management in Key West and The Florida Keys since 1998

Lower Keys' Real Estate Forecast for 2021-2022

The Lower Keys residential real estate forecast for 2021 through 2022 is somewhat uncertain. Although there are current statistics, the lifting of foreclosure, short sale, and eviction moratoriums will have an impact on the market. But, it’s unknown at this time how it will manifest. Still, there are some figures and trends available to help estimate what might unfold through the remainder of this year and into the next. Read on to learn more about the Lower Keys residential real estate forecast for 2021 through 2022.

The Lower Keys residential real estate forecast for 2021 through 2022 is beginning on a high note, particularly for sellers. Presently, Key West, in particular, is experiencing a true sellers’ market. Homes listed for sale are going under contract in a median of 73 days on the market or just about two and half months. This follows a fairly consistent pattern from February, when the median days on the market stood at 60, and then in May when the median days on the market stood at 70.

Currently, the sale-to-list price in the Lower Keys is very high. Using Key West as an example again, the sale-to-list price is an impressive 98.84%, meaning homes are selling for only 1.16% under the listing price. At this time, the median listing price stands at right around $892.5K, which represents an increase of 19.2 percent in a year-over-year comparison. Additionally, the median list price per square foot is $680, with a median selling price of $750K.

The residential rental market remains fairly stable, with lease payments ranging from $2,000 up to $10,000 per month. However, as previously mentioned, the federal eviction moratorium is no longer in effect, which exposes the residential rental market to real volatility.

The Lower Keys residential real estate market forecast for the next few months of 2021 and into 2022 will not only be affected by supply and demand but also, the expiration of foreclosure and short sale moratoriums. Because these are now able to proceed, it could potentially lead to a rash of distressed properties coming onto the market in a short period of time. That would constitute a substantial disruption and one that might result in driving non-distressed properties down in value.

For the foreseeable future, the Lower Keys real estate market should remain stable, though it will likely slow going into the later months of the year.

What's New August 2022

Key West Luxury Real Estate Forecast

The Key West luxury real estate forecast looks good, given the current circumstances. However, it could suffer some amount of trouble, as certain external factors come into the picture and play out across the micro market. So, let's take a more detailed look at the luxury residential real estate forecast of Key West and what we might expect to see unfold.

The Key West luxury real estate forecast is currently quite strong. Right now, there are over 260 homes for sale in the community, ranging from $156,000 up to $9.5 million. Presently, the median listing price in Key West stands at 1.2 million, with a meeting list price per square foot of $926, and a median selling price of $950,000. These figures represent a 34.3% increase in a year-over-year comparison, which is very impressive, to say the least. Also, the sale-to-list price ratio remains very high at 99.02%, meaning listings are selling for less than 1% under their asking price, or almost near parity with their listing price.

Presently, Key West is considered to be in a hot seller's market, greatly favoring homeowners and property investors seeking to upgrade or relocate. Buyers are in somewhat of a predicament at this time, because there are more active people looking to purchase real estate than there is available inventory. However, this dynamic is likely to change over the coming months, to a few factors, including rising inflation, rising interest rates, shortage of labor and building materials, and the possible reintroduction of distressed properties or foreclosures and short sales.

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